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May, 2011  // Posts published in May, 2011

System Design Alternatives

System Design Alternatives

  There is certainly no lack of methods for predicting time series. Traditional econometric models (e.g. ARMA) as well as various GARCH formulations have been extensively applied.  More recently models based on Pareto-Levy (nonlinear) distributions incorporating embeddings in phase-space reconstructions have had some success. Neural networks, genetic algorithms, and their A.I. spinoffs are also used with […]

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20 May Posted by in Day Trading | Comments

CORRELATION:The true relationship between technical indicators and price movement

CORRELATION:The true relationship between technical indicators and price movement

  My good friend and fellow mentor, Ken Chow, developed a trading technique he calls SuperStructure. It uses only price.  No indicators at all. He and his students do quite well. But, success at SuperStructure requires a certain mathematical aptitude that not everyone has.  I know I don’t have it. I need more visual cues […]

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Steady Monthly Income by, selling out-of-the-money near term options.

Steady Monthly Income by, selling out-of-the-money near term options.

  Out-of-the-money options, in the near term month, lose their premium rapidly as they approach expiration.  An excellent strategy to take advantage of this phenomenon is to sell these options.  Set-up the trade as seen below: Sell options on non-volatile indexes like the small cap Russell 2000 index (RUT). Sell options with a probability of […]

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Impact of Size

Impact of Size

  Even if  your not an institution, there may come a point where the size of your trades impacts the price you receive.  What size threshold behooves you to recognize (ala Heisenberg), that your interaction (interference) with the market, changes the market? In order to cleverly adjust order entry for optimal fills, market microstructure assessment is essential. […]

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03 May Posted by in Candle Sticks | Comments

The Importance of the Exit Strategy (Part II)

The Importance of the Exit Strategy (Part II)

  After entering the Abbott Labs (ABT) trade on 2/16 @ $46.77 and the May 42 call @ $5.05 we stayed with the trend until the beginning of April.  At that point the call had yielded a great return.  I was looking to exit at the first sign of weakness.  Two confirming signals: Fibonacci extensions […]

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02 May Posted by in Techical Analysis | Comments

Confirming Signals

Confirming Signals

  Whenever we look at a possible signal on whatever trading system or methodology you use, it’s always best to add confirming “sub-signals”. These smaller minor signals reinforce the original signal and make the trade much more reliable. I call these “Supporting Structures”. I use primarily a basic bar chart to read trend direction and […]

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