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Natural Law and Speculation

Natural Law and Speculation
 

I expect the stock market to rise for the next four weeks, till October 16, to be exact, and to reach the level of 1788.  The specificity of view derives from the particular models I use.

The primary thrust of market analysis, for the purpose of locating “good” trades, has for  the last two hundred years or so benefited from financial modeling. Various theoretical constructs, or paradigms, have been derived to assist traders organize their thoughts and ideas about market mechanics.

Optimally these models assist traders in their attempts to more precisely understand the dynamics of time series, which at times are linear, exhibiting independent, and identically distributed statistical distributions. Similarly, to the extent a particular model is tuned well enough, it should also have some sensitivities to nonlinear type time series distributions. However robust a model may be, I’m not  currently aware of any that would fall into the “Holy Grail” category. Since as market participants we lack the perfect measuring device, and because we know this, typical  operating procedure over the years has been to mix and match various of the known modalities that are out there, in the effort to “hedge our bets” as it were. The search for “convergence”, or depending on the strengths of a given method to offset the weaknesses  of another and vice versa, is integral to my approach.

Though I think, that from a fundamental, cause and effect standpoint, cycles are the root origin of all market motion, this is much less important than my understanding of cyclical analysis’ shortcomings, and thus it’s need to be filtered, by something completely different.

Nevertheless, it is my time projection models, which enable me to consistently with confidence project, and then trade profitably market returns.

This Saturday’s (09/21/13) Free Webinar will be a forum where I discuss theoretical precepts supporting these particular time projections, so stay tuned in.

 

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