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Market Mechanics  // Posts tagged as "Market Mechanics"

07 Oct Posted by in Market Forecasting | Comments Off on The Effect of Moving Thoughts on Our Trading

The Effect of Moving Thoughts on Our Trading

The Effect of Moving Thoughts on Our Trading

The  set of thoughts and emotions constantly running through our internal perception apparatus, creates the narrative that defines one’s internal state. The study and measurement of this phenomena (as it relates to speculation in financial markets) typically falls in the category of trading psychology.  For there to be a furtherance of activity toward one’s speculative […]

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30 Sep Posted by in Market Forecasting | Comments Off on Numbers -The Matrix of All Market Motion

Numbers -The Matrix of All Market Motion

Numbers -The Matrix of All Market Motion

Financial time series modeling should incorporate cyclical analysis. The basis of all cycles is vibration. If an object or a system is stationary, in a particular reference frame, then presumably there is no vibration; although the potential for vibration does exist. If at some point, a polarity manefests, the stationary system aquires the potential for […]

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29 Jun Posted by in Market Forecasting | Comments Off on July 4th Marks the Spot for the Stock Market

July 4th Marks the Spot for the Stock Market

July 4th Marks the Spot for the Stock Market

  To paraphrase W.D. Gann, a market will not do, what its going to do, unless and until it’s time has come. This concept is central to my investment and trading philosophy. Recently, I pointed out in a webinar that the first step I take to locate  a good trade is to establish a time […]

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16 Sep Posted by in Market Forecasting | Comments Off on STOCK MARKET TO ADVANCE

STOCK MARKET TO ADVANCE

STOCK MARKET TO ADVANCE

The advances we saw this week in the stock market should continue.  A number of cycles tuned specifically to equities touch down tomorrow (09/17/11), and I expect will provide the jolt required of a 3rd wave.  Today,I entered long positions at 1210 basis the December e-mini. Since I didn’t see the retracement I was expecting […]

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03 Jul Posted by in Market Forecasting | Comments Off on Current Projection for Equity Markets

Current Projection for Equity Markets

Current Projection for Equity Markets

  Basis the September e-mini S&P, the next major time target I’ve projected is July 31st. This date arrives on a Sunday, so  my expectation for a significant transition in the behavior of the market will likely be as of Monday, August 1st. During the first part of last week, I had worked out some overhead […]

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11 Jun Posted by in Market Forecasting | Comments Off on Signals for 06/13/2011

Signals for 06/13/2011

Signals for 06/13/2011

    SELL GOLD This is what John Maynard Keynes would say if he were alive today! A recent article in a financial paper advocated a return to the Gold Standard, and disagreed with John Maynard Keynes’ famous statement “Gold is a barbarous relic”. The financial meltdown of 2008 and the current Middle East turmoil […]

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09 Jun Posted by in Market Forecasting | Comments Off on Update on time target arrival

Update on time target arrival

Update on time target arrival

  In my Webinar presentation last Saturday, I provided some dates that I think will mark turning points for the stockmarket. The next date to arrive is June 12, 2011 (This coming Sunday). Since this arrives on the weekend, I’m anticipating a turn on Monday 06/13/11. Considering the recent trend, it appears the market is likely to […]

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29 May Posted by in Market Forecasting | Comments Off on System Design Alternatives

System Design Alternatives

System Design Alternatives

  There is certainly no lack of methods for predicting time series. Traditional econometric models (e.g. ARMA) as well as various GARCH formulations have been extensively applied.  More recently models based on Pareto-Levy (nonlinear) distributions incorporating embeddings in phase-space reconstructions have had some success. Neural networks, genetic algorithms, and their A.I. spinoffs are also used with […]

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13 May Posted by in Market Microstructure | Comments Off on Impact of Size

Impact of Size

Impact of Size

  Even if  your not an institution, there may come a point where the size of your trades impacts the price you receive.  What size threshold behooves you to recognize (ala Heisenberg), that your interaction (interference) with the market, changes the market? In order to cleverly adjust order entry for optimal fills, market microstructure assessment is essential. […]

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29 Apr Posted by in Trend Analysis | Comments Off on Trend Analysis

Trend Analysis

Trend Analysis

  All forms of technical analysis are arbitrary from the standpoint of attempting to indicate what should or could occur. They are also arbitrary to the extent they attempt to anticipate a change in the market’s behavior, say from moving up to down or vice versa. The one exception to this is a certain pure […]

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