Market Mechanics // Posts tagged as "Market Mechanics"
The Effect of Moving Thoughts on Our Trading
The set of thoughts and emotions constantly running through our internal perception apparatus, creates the narrative that defines one’s internal state. The study and measurement of this phenomena (as it relates to speculation in financial markets) typically falls in the category of trading psychology. For there to be a furtherance of activity toward one’s speculative […]
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Numbers -The Matrix of All Market Motion
Financial time series modeling should incorporate cyclical analysis. The basis of all cycles is vibration. If an object or a system is stationary, in a particular reference frame, then presumably there is no vibration; although the potential for vibration does exist. If at some point, a polarity manefests, the stationary system aquires the potential for […]
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July 4th Marks the Spot for the Stock Market
To paraphrase W.D. Gann, a market will not do, what its going to do, unless and until it’s time has come. This concept is central to my investment and trading philosophy. Recently, I pointed out in a webinar that the first step I take to locate a good trade is to establish a time […]
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STOCK MARKET TO ADVANCE
The advances we saw this week in the stock market should continue. A number of cycles tuned specifically to equities touch down tomorrow (09/17/11), and I expect will provide the jolt required of a 3rd wave. Today,I entered long positions at 1210 basis the December e-mini. Since I didn’t see the retracement I was expecting […]
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Current Projection for Equity Markets
Basis the September e-mini S&P, the next major time target I’ve projected is July 31st. This date arrives on a Sunday, so my expectation for a significant transition in the behavior of the market will likely be as of Monday, August 1st. During the first part of last week, I had worked out some overhead […]
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Signals for 06/13/2011
SELL GOLD This is what John Maynard Keynes would say if he were alive today! A recent article in a financial paper advocated a return to the Gold Standard, and disagreed with John Maynard Keynes’ famous statement “Gold is a barbarous relic”. The financial meltdown of 2008 and the current Middle East turmoil […]
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Update on time target arrival
In my Webinar presentation last Saturday, I provided some dates that I think will mark turning points for the stockmarket. The next date to arrive is June 12, 2011 (This coming Sunday). Since this arrives on the weekend, I’m anticipating a turn on Monday 06/13/11. Considering the recent trend, it appears the market is likely to […]
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System Design Alternatives
There is certainly no lack of methods for predicting time series. Traditional econometric models (e.g. ARMA) as well as various GARCH formulations have been extensively applied. More recently models based on Pareto-Levy (nonlinear) distributions incorporating embeddings in phase-space reconstructions have had some success. Neural networks, genetic algorithms, and their A.I. spinoffs are also used with […]
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Impact of Size
Even if your not an institution, there may come a point where the size of your trades impacts the price you receive. What size threshold behooves you to recognize (ala Heisenberg), that your interaction (interference) with the market, changes the market? In order to cleverly adjust order entry for optimal fills, market microstructure assessment is essential. […]
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Trend Analysis
All forms of technical analysis are arbitrary from the standpoint of attempting to indicate what should or could occur. They are also arbitrary to the extent they attempt to anticipate a change in the market’s behavior, say from moving up to down or vice versa. The one exception to this is a certain pure […]
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